As part of our ongoing effort to understand the electorate, Innovation Ohio polled Ohio voters about recent leaked news that the US Supreme Court would soon overturn the Roe vs Wade precedent that made the right to an abortion the law of the land and found a growing level of concern and motivation to vote.¹

In polls conducted in late April² and again in early June – before and after the news leaked – we saw significant shifts in the number of voters who ranked abortion care as one of the top issues facing Ohioans. In our June poll, conducted before Friday’s official ruling, 15% of Ohio voters ranked abortion as one of the top 3 issues facing Ohioans, out of a list of 17 possible options. This is up significantly from 8% a month earlier, before rumors about the ruling emerged. Clearly, voters were increasingly focused on threats to abortion rights even before we heard from the court last week.

We also saw that some groups of voters are more tuned into the abortion debate than others. The share of Black voters ranking abortion as a top issue in our poll in June was up by 14% compared to a month earlier. Other groups that showed big jumps in concern included Democrats (up 14%), young voters (up 12%), college voters (up 11%) and women (up 10%). Abortion now ranks as a top 3 concern for Democrats and young voters between the ages of 18 and 34. 

Another key question is whether this increased focus on abortion rights will lead to more urgency to vote in November. When we asked the question in early June, after the rumors surfaced, 58% of Ohioans told us that the rumor made them more motivated to vote in the fall. This was true of 80% of voters identifying as Democrats, compared to 48% of Republicans. 67% of Black voters, 64% of voters with a college degree and 62% of women say the news makes them more motivated to vote, compared to 57% of white voters, 55% of non-college voters and 53% of men, respectively.

Now that the ruling is a reality, we will be conducting additional research to see how attitudes have shifted, if at all.

1. GrowProgress, 2,018 registered voters, 5/30-6/3, MOE +/- 3%
2. GrowProgress, 2,000 registered voters, 4/25-4/29, MOE +/- 2.5%

As part of Innovation Ohio’s role in supporting Ohio’s progressive infrastructure, we occasionally commission research to equip us and our partners with an understanding of the mood of the electorate and of policy solutions that will best improve the lives of working families. Research is vital to our organization’s ability to connect the dots between activism, advocacy, and policy making. 

Today, we are sharing the results of a new poll of just over 2,000 Ohio registered voters, conducted online from May 30 – June 3 on the GrowProgress platform, on the state of the race for US Senate and voter enthusiasm about the election. In it, we find that Democrat Tim Ryan has built on his pre-primary edge over J.D. Vance and now leads the race by 3 points, 44%-41%. 

Conducted a month after our last poll and the conclusion of the GOP primary, the poll shows Republican voters remain reluctant to throw their support behind extremist J.D. Vance. Vance’s support among Republicans sits at 79%, while Ryan secures 91% of Democrats. 14% of Ohio Republicans remain undecided.

Now that the GOP primary is settled with DeWine and Vance at the top of the ticket, our two polls also show that Republicans have lost the motivation advantage. While Republicans were slightly more likely than Democrats to report they were “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote in November, that share dropped by 8 points after the conclusion of the primary, and now stands at 80%. Voter motivation among Democratic voters remains unchanged at 87%.

The poll also shows Ryan holding substantial leads among women, black voters, younger voters (ages 18-54) and those with a college degree. Vance, meanwhile, maintains an edge among white voters, those ages 55 and up and non-college voters. Tim Ryan once down by double digits among independent voters now finds himself only trailing by 1%.

Full results:

“Congressman Ryan is on a roll and J.D. Vance has failed to connect with Ohioans,” said Innovation Ohio President Desiree Tims. “While Ryan finds ways to earn votes from key demographics, Vance’s extremist campaign isn’t doing himself or his campaign any favors, even among the Republican base. Ohio voters are done with extremist politicians like J.D. Vance,” Tims continues. “Ohioans want to live in a progressive state with proven leaders who can deliver. The right wing extremist agenda voids us of such opportunity.”

GrowProgress surveyed 2018 Ohio registered voters on May 30 through June 3. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3%.