Innovation Ohio

What you need to know about Ohio Politics and Policy

Poll Finds Democrat Ryan Leading U.S. Senate Race

Contact: goodnight@innovationohio.org

Columbus, OH – A new poll from Innovation Ohio and GrowProgress shows that in the race for US Senate, Congressman Tim Ryan, the newly-minted Democratic nominee, is leading his Republican rival, venture capitalist JD Vance 43-41. 

A memo on the results can be found on Innovation Ohio’s website.

The poll also found that in a state Trump won twice, Vance still lacks the support of more than 1 in 5 members of his own party. A bruising primary and a history of changing political positions – particularly his views on former President Trump – leave Vance with the support of just 78% of Republicans. Ryan, by contrast, picks up 91% of Democrats.

“As the race heads into the General Election, Tim Ryan is showing signs of strength and momentum against J.D. Vance.” said Innovation Ohio President Desiree Tims. “In a state where Trump won twice, Vance has yet to capture similar levels of support.”

“This race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the country,” Tims continued.

The poll showed Ryan holding substantial leads among women, black voters, younger voters (18-54) and those with a college degree. Vance, meanwhile, maintains an edge among white voters, those ages 55 and up and non-college voters.

These findings showing Vance’s weakness within his own party are consistent with new analysis by six political scientists that measured how GOP primary voters felt about different political figures. In the JD Vance received a rating of 59 out of 100 on a political “thermometer” scale measuring candidate favorability, compared to a score of 75 for Trump. Overall, the GOP is not as unified as Democrats heading into the General Election.

Founded in 2011, Innovation Ohio is a nonpartisan, nonprofit thank tank that blends policy research and advocacy to fight for working families in Ohio.

Grow Progress surveyed 2000 Ohio voters on April 25th through April 29th, just days before the primary.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.5%.

New Poll Shows Biden and Sanders Beat Trump in Ohio

The swing state of Ohio remains in play ahead of the 2020 election.

A new poll released by NBC News and Marist on the day before the Ohio primary (previously scheduled for March 17) shows Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in a general election by 4 points in the Buckeye State, 49 percent to 45 percent.

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Bernie Sanders also leads Trump in a general election match-up by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

Knowing that it is a long way off, 45 percent of registered voters in Ohio say they want to see a Democratic Congress as the outcome of the election. 44 percent say they would prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans.

In Ohio, Trump’s approval rating among registered voters is 46 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove, according to NBC News.

See what’s on the ballot in Ohio in 2020

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January Poll Shows Trump Trails Any Democrat in Ohio

A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll was conducted among 1,031 self-identified registered voters in Ohio between 1/8/20 and 1/20/20.

The poll shows Trump underwater, trailing a generic Democrat by five points, 44.3 percent to 39.4 percent. 16.3 percent of respondents in Ohio were undecided.

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44 percent of Ohio voters say they are “almost certain” to vote against Donald Trump. no matter whom the Democrats nominate while 34 percent say the opposite, that they’ll almost certainly vote for the president.

45 percent of women and 42 percent of men surveyed say they plan to support the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is.

Trump’s support among women is about 6 points lower than his support among men. 40 percent of men support the Republican president while only 34 percent of women support him.

12 percent of Ohio respondents said they may vote for or against Donald Trump depending upon who becomes the Democratic nominee.

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October Poll Finds Trump Underwater in Ohio, Trailing Generic Democrat

Columbus, OH – A new poll from Public Policy Polling and Innovation Ohio shows that Ohio is set to return to its traditional status as a battleground state in 2020.
A memo on the results and the cross tabs can be found on Innovation Ohio’s website.
After winning the state by 8 points in 2016, the PPP survey finds President Trump trailing a generic Democratic 47-48% and an underwater 47-51% favorable/unfavorable rating. Given that state’s swing from 2012 to 2016, it is especially notable that President Trump trails a generic Democrat 37-51% with independent voters.
“As Democrats gather to debate in Ohio, these results show that Ohio will once again be a battleground in 2020, and any Democrat would be foolish to write off our state,” said Innovation Ohio President Janetta King. “Given his unpopularity with Ohio voters, it is clear that President Trump’s failures and broken promises are catching up with him in the state.”
“Ohio is a must-win state for President Trump. His poor numbers in this poll help to explain his early spending on TV and digital ads here,” King continued.
The poll also tested President Trump against five Democratic candidates; he failed to top 47% against any of them. This survey comes on the heels of similar results from Emerson Polling.
Founded in 2011, Innovation Ohio is a nonpartisan, nonprofit thank tank that blends policy research and advocacy to fight for working families in Ohio.
PPP surveyed 776 Ohio voters on October 10th and 11th on behalf of Innovation Ohio. 60% of surveys were completed by telephone and 40% were completed by text message. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%.

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