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Nick Tuell · June 1, 2022

Poll Finds Democrat Ryan Leading U.S. Senate Race


Columbus, OH – A new poll from Innovation Ohio and GrowProgress shows that in the race for US Senate, Congressman Tim Ryan, the newly-minted Democratic nominee, is leading his Republican rival, venture capitalist JD Vance 43-41. 

A memo on the results can be found on Innovation Ohio’s website.

The poll also found that in a state Trump won twice, Vance still lacks the support of more than 1 in 5 members of his own party. A bruising primary and a history of changing political positions – particularly his views on former President Trump – leave Vance with the support of just 78% of Republicans. Ryan, by contrast, picks up 91% of Democrats.

“As the race heads into the General Election, Tim Ryan is showing signs of strength and momentum against J.D. Vance.” said Innovation Ohio President Desiree Tims. “In a state where Trump won twice, Vance has yet to capture similar levels of support.”

“This race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the country,” Tims continued.

The poll showed Ryan holding substantial leads among women, black voters, younger voters (18-54) and those with a college degree. Vance, meanwhile, maintains an edge among white voters, those ages 55 and up and non-college voters.

These findings showing Vance’s weakness within his own party are consistent with new analysis by six political scientists that measured how GOP primary voters felt about different political figures. In the JD Vance received a rating of 59 out of 100 on a political “thermometer” scale measuring candidate favorability, compared to a score of 75 for Trump. Overall, the GOP is not as unified as Democrats heading into the General Election.

Founded in 2011, Innovation Ohio is a nonpartisan, nonprofit thank tank that blends policy research and advocacy to fight for working families in Ohio.

Grow Progress surveyed 2000 Ohio voters on April 25th through April 29th, just days before the primary.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.5%.

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