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Sep 20 2022

Research Update: “How to Talk About Crime”

In our monthly tracking polls, crime has steadily risen as a top concern among voters. The issue was named as one of the top 3 issues facing Ohioans by 24.3% respondents this month placing crime and safety behind only Inflation and the Economy in our poll. That’s an increase over the 19.8% of voters who ranked crime as a top issue in our poll a year ago, when it ranked 5th among issues facing the state.

Concerns about safety cut across demographics and party affiliation, but tend to skew higher with age and lower with education. Crime and safety is the 3rd highest ranking issue overall and for men and voters over 55; 4th for women and voters 35-54; 5th for Black voters and young voters.

We saw this again in a statewide poll about judicial races conducted in June. In their responses, voters identified “tough on crime” and “smart on crime” as the two most compelling qualities in a prospective judge. 77% of poll respondents, including 65% of Black voters, 62% of urban voters and 79% of suburban voters say they are more likely to support a candidate who is “tough on crime”. The numbers were similar, but a few percentage points lower, for a “smart on crime” candidate. No other candidate quality scored as highly.

To understand why so many voters identify crime and safety as a concern, we probed further in our August poll, asking about types of criminal behavior they’re concerned about. Overall, property crimes (such as vandalism and theft) topped the list, with 44% calling it a concern, followed by 41% who pointed to drug-related crimes and 41% who named violent crime. 25% of respondents pointed to corporate crime like bribery and wage theft, while 19% said they weren’t particularly concerned about crime. Property crimes were the top issue for Independent and young voters, and drug crimes topped the list for Republicans. But for Democrats, Black voters, men and older voters, violent crime (things like assault and murder) was the top area of concern. 

We wanted to hear more from voters in their own words. Earlier this month, we conducted an Audience Understanding Survey – an online focus group using the GrowProgress platform – in which just under 600 registered Ohio voters were asked multiple-choice and open-ended questions about their opinion on the statement “crime is a major issue in my community that elected officials need to address”. Over half of respondents said they agreed – 32% strongly agreed and another 25% somewhat.

Digging into the responses, we learned several things:

The belief that crime and safety is an important issue that officials should address extends across party, race, gender and age. That said, voters who were the most concerned tended to be more female, younger, less educated, more urban, more Black, more likely to vote Democratic and more likely to call themselves moderates than respondents who told us they felt safety concerns were overblown. 

Many of our respondents describe first-hand experiences with crime or referred to media reports suggesting crime was on the rise locally. Most open-ended responses mentioned violent crimes, often involving guns, but also property crimes such as vehicle theft. Respondents said they didn’t hear much from politicians about crime and public safety and expressed the view that officials are either out of touch and unaware of safety concerns, or are afraid to talk about them for political reasons. Voters suggested policy remedies that ranged from more funding and more effective policing, but just as many respondents voiced concerns about the underlying causes of crime such as poverty and insufficient job opportunities. This group also mentioned the widespread availability of guns as a contributor.

The voters least likely to express concerns about crime in our survey tended to be older, whiter, more suburban and rural, less likely to attend religious services, lean conservative and voted for Trump. They told us the reason for their opinion was that crime was low in their communities.

Message Guidance

Progressives and progressive candidates should not shy away from the issue of safety and justice. Acknowledge people’s real fears and discuss the variety of underlying causes of crime and lack of safety in the community. Voters are most interested in understanding a candidate is not out of touch and not afraid to talk about safety. 

In addition to acknowledging safety concerns and being open to addressing the root causes of crime, progressives should also center the victims of crime. In particular, when speaking about Republican elected officials, consider characterizing them as “tough on victims.” Specific proof points include: 

  • Limits on jury awards that mean victims can’t get the compensation they deserve
  • Refusal to extend the statute of limitations so old rape cases where DNA evidence is now available cannot be prosecuted
  • Denying leniency to victims of human trafficking, even when acting in self-defense against their traffickers.
  • Laws that send rape and incest survivors out of state when they need an abortion

Here are some messages that we tested that are effective in persuading voters against republican opponents using a victims-first framing:

Message 1: Tough on Victims
When a 10-year-old rape victim was forced to flee to Indiana to end her pregnancy because of Ohio’s no-exceptions abortion ban, Republican politicians accused the child of being liar. They engaged in a nationally-televised smear campaign against a little girl. Republicans aren’t tough on crime, they’re tough on victims.

Test Results:

  • Decreased GOP favorability by 10 points overall – particularly effective with independents (-19), low income voters (-18), moderates (-15), men and voters 55 and up (both -14), ruralites (-13), white voters and suburbanites (both -12), and 35-54 year olds (-11)
  • Increased vote choice for Democratic judges by 4 points overall – particularly effective with low-income voters (+8)

Message 2: Divide and Conquer
MAGA Republicans Kennedy, DeWine, and Fischer talk about crime to divide our communities by race, income, and where we live. The truth is we all want our families to be safe from violent crime. These candidates for the Ohio Supreme Court want to keep us all blaming each other while they offer no real solutions to keep us safe from violent crime.

Test Results:

  • Increased vote choice for Democratic judges by 5 points overall – particularly effective with voters aged 35 – 54, independents and low turnout voters (all +15)
  • Decreased GOP favorability by 4 points overall – particularly effective with men and independents (both -12), voters 55 and over and suburbanites (both -11)

Message 3: Corporate Crime
The MAGA Republicans running for Ohio Supreme Court say they’re tough on crime, but they look the other way when the corporate criminals who fund their campaigns steal millions from Ohioans through bribery and fraud. They’re soft on crime when rich criminals donate.

Test Results:

  • Increased vote choice for Democratic judges by 4 points overall – particularly effective with independents (+12) and ruralites (+11)

Message 4: Soft on Crime
The MAGA Republicans running for Ohio Supreme Court have a track record of making it easier for criminals to get their hands on guns, and of overturning verdicts to make pedophiles compensate their victims for pain and suffering. They are doing nothing to protect our communities from violent criminals.

Results:

  • Increased vote choice for Democratic judges by 5 points overall – particularly effective with people who voted Democratic in 2020 (+12), people outside the largest media markets (+9), independents, suburbanites and men (all +8)
  • Decreased GOP favorability by 6 points overall – particularly effective with independents and suburbanites (both -15), men, moderates and people outside the largest media markets (all -14), low income voters (-12) and white voters (-10).

Written by 2022 Election Hub · Categorized: 2022 Election Hub · Tagged: 2022 election hub, crime, criminal justice

Sep 18 2022

Ohio Supreme Court

For Chief Justice

Jennifer Brunner
Democrat
Sharon Kennedy
Republican
Hometown:Springfield, OH Hamilton, Ohio
Biography:Brunner was elected to the Ohio Supreme Court in 2020 and serves as an Associate Justice. 

Brunner also volunteers as a member of many boards including the Columbus Foundation, Oxfam America and the US Global Leadership Fund.
Sharon Kennedy has worked in various courts since 1999 and previously worked as a police officer in Hamilton, Ohio.

She has served on the Ohio Supreme Court since 2012.
Prior employment:Supreme Court of Ohio, Justice (2021 – Present)

Bar Association of Sri Lanka, Instructor (2015 – 2015)

Ohio Court of Appeals, Judge – District 10 (2014 – 2021)

Brunner Quinn, Partner (2011 – 2014)
Ohio Supreme Court, Justice (2012 – Present)

Butler County, Domestic Relations Court Administrative Judge (1999 – 2012)

Private Practice, Attorney
 
Police Officer, Hamilton Police Department
Website:JusticeBrunner.com KennedyForOhio.com
Social media: Facebook
Twitter 
Facebook
Twitter 

For Associate Justice

Marilyn Zayas
Democrat
Pat DeWine
Republican
Hometown:New York City, NY Cincinnati, Ohio
Biography:Zayas was elected in 2016 to serve as a Judge on the Ohio First District Court of Appeals.

Prior to being elected, Zayas worked as an attorney in the public and corporate environment. Zayas also worked at her own law firm for 20 years.
Pat DeWine is the eldest child of Gov. Mike DeWine and Frances DeWine.

He has been in his position in  the Ohio Supreme Court since 2017.
Prior Employment:Ohio Court of Appeals, Judge – District 1 (2016 – Present)

University of Cincinnati, Adjunct Professor (2014 – 2015)

MZD Law, Attorney (2001 – 2016)
Ohio Supreme Court, Justice (2017 – Present)

Ohio Court of Appeals, Judge – District 1 (2013 – 2017)

Hamilton County Court of Common Pleas, Judge (2009 – 2013)

Hamilton County, Commissioner (2005 – 2008)

Keating Muething & Klekamp, Attorney (1996 – 2008)
Website:JudgeMarilynZayas.com PatDeWine.com
Social Media:Facebook
Twitter
Facebook
Twitter

For Associate Justice

Terri Jamison
Democrat
Patrick Fischer
Republican
Hometown:Welch, West Virginia Covington, Kentucky
Biography:Judge Terri Jamison  was elected to serve as a Judge in the Ohio Tenth District Court of Appeals in 2020.

She has been working in law for 18 years, earning her JD from Capital University.

Pat Fischer has been a justice on the Ohio Supreme Court since 2017 and has been dedicated to law for 30 years.
Prior employment:Ohio Court of Appeals, Judge – District 10 (2021 – Present)

Franklin County Court of Common Pleas Domestic Relations-Juvenile Court, Judge (2013)

Unemployment Compensation Review Commission, Hearing Officer

Jamison Law Offices, Principal
Ohio Supreme Court, Justice (2017 – Present)

Ohio State Court of Appeals, Judge – District 1 (2010 – 2016)
Website:VoteJudgeJamison.com FischerForOhio.com
Social Media:Facebook
Twitter
Facebook
Twitter

Written by 2022 Election Hub · Categorized: 2022 Election Hub · Tagged: 2022 election hub, supreme court

Sep 18 2022

IO Research: “How To Talk About Abortion Rights”

As might be expected, the recent move by right-wing extremists on the US Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs Wade and, in turn, send abortion policy back to the states is on the minds of voters. Our research showed the issue gaining in importance even before the June 24 court decision, a trend which continued in our July poll.

The percent of Ohio voters who rank Abortion as a top issue has increased steadily since May.

Despite the clear importance of protecting abortion rights to many voters, it’s not yet clear that the court decision will change the makeup of the electorate. In our poll, 58% of voters said the decision made them more excited to vote in November. This includes large majorities of Democrats and Black voters, but the feeling is less widely held among younger and swing voters. Further, some pro-choice voters are demoralized, while others say the court ruling won’t automatically earn the Democrats their vote.

A majority of voters, and overwelming majority of Democrats say the recent ruling on Roe makes them more motivated to vote in November.

In order to translate the threat to abortion rights into electoral consequences, it’s important to understand the concerns of different groups of voters and speak to them in a way that gives them something to vote for.

New research conducted by HIT Strategies found young voters are disappointed and tired, and want to hear specifics about a candidate’s history of fighting for abortion rights and what they will do in office to protect them. Merely asking voters to vote for Democrats is not enough.

    [on how you feel things are going in the country] “fatigued because there’s only so much a level of anger and upset you can be before it takes a toll and you’re just exhausted of being upset all the time.” – Young white base woman 

    [on activism] “You have to not donate to politicians. You have to donate to funds/community services in your area…you can donate to those funds and services that help facilitate women and anybody who needs that help to either travel, house, pay for the procedure itself—just make sure it’s safe” – Young white base woman

    [on what they want to hear from candidates]: “Show me what you’ve done already. And then show me what you plan on doing. I don’t want to hear you say that you’re going to do something. Show me your plan so I can believe it.” – Young Hispanic base woman

Pro-choice organizations and messengers need to clearly, specifically and believably convey to young voters how they will defend abortion rights and that their vote will make a difference.

Messaging Research

Our research tested a number of common approaches to talking about threats to abortion rights and found none that universally increase support for pro-choice candidates. In one example drawing on history of dangerous illegal abortions, the message worked well with college educated voters, but had a negative (backlash) effect with voters with a high school education.

Coat hanger graphic that reads "Never Again" followed by text: "When Republicans overstep by banning abortions, we know some people will die because they can't safely or quickly access the care they need. We can save lives by electing leaders who will protect abortion access and trust us and our doctors to make our own personal health care decisions."

    Test Results: Would vote for a pro-choice candidate

    • Bachelor’s degree or higher +14 pp
    • High school or less -11pp

    Test Results: More motivated to vote in November

    • Men +2 pp
    • Women -7pp

    Clearly, with messages such as these, a highly targeted approach is necessary. 

    Positive messages can be effective in persuading some voters to select pro-choice candidates. Results of message testing in Michigan showed that a video saying that “[candidate x] stands with us on our right to have an abortion” increased the number of respondents who said they would vote for the named candidate by 6 points, but that positive effect was observed mainly among women and younger (under 55) voters.

    Research by Galvanize Action, which studies the opinions and attitudes of women, found several abortion messages that are more effective when speaking to voters in the middle of the political spectrum, particularly moderate white women. According to Galvanize, this is a group who tends to think abortion should be legal, but with restrictions. They may be anti-abortion for themselves, but support others making that choice. 

    Galvanize advises that with this segment, instead of relying on anger-based messages, communicators should instead focus on hope, leaning heavily on values held disproportionately by women like compassion, and empathy. Make the reader the hero of their story. Below are three examples of messages that were effective in building support for protecting abortion rights with these moderate white women:

      Message 1: Most women who need abortions also need someone to listen to them. They don’t need to be lectured. The best thing any one of us can do if a friend comes to us with this type of problem is listen and support them. It is her life, not ours. That’s why I support upholding Roe v. Wade.

    Test Results: agree that Roe v. Wade should not be overturned

    • Independents (+15pp)
    • Rural Voters (+18pp)
    • Under $50k Household (+12pp)

      Message 2: My friends mean everything to me. So even though I don’t think I could ever have an abortion, if one of my friends told me that was the best decision for her, I would listen and support her – not judge. Instead of recognizing that life is complicated and women need support, states are just banning abortion – even in cases of rape. These decisions should be made by women, not politicians trying to stay in power.

    Test Results: agree that Roe v. Wade should not be overturned

    • Republicans (+15pp)
    • Moderates (+12pp)
    • Under $50k Household (+10pp)

      Message 3: I’ve had two kids and lost two during pregnancy. I’m still grieving those babies. Probably always will. So, I’m not someone who could ever imagine having an abortion myself. But that doesn’t mean I’d want to change the law to take that choice away from another woman. Until I’ve walked a mile in your shoes, I won’t presume to know your struggles or what is right for you. We are all doing the best we can. We need to support each other.

    Test Results: agree that Roe v. Wade should not be overturned

    • Age 35-54 (+15pp)
    • Bachelor’s Degree (+14pp)
    • Moderates (+13pp)
    • Independents (+13pp)

    Overall, when speaking about abortion rights to the pro-choice base, it’s important to be as specific as possible about how you or your organization will protect them. With more moderate and swing voters, appeal to values of compassion and empathy. And keep in mind abortion will not be the deciding issue of the election for all voters, so target accordingly.

Written by 2022 Election Hub · Categorized: 2022 Election Hub · Tagged: 2022 election hub, Abortion

Sep 18 2022

U.S. Senate Race

Tim Ryan
Democrat
JD Vance
Republican
Hometown:Niles, Ohio Middletown, Ohio
Biography:Tim Ryan has been representing the 13th district in Ohio since 2013. He has dedicated his career to public service and working for Ohioans. JD Vance is the author of “Hillbilly Elegy.” He worked as a venture capitalist in San Francisco, California before running for US Senate.
Prior employment:US House of Representatives, Representative (2003 – Present)

Ohio State Senate, State Senator (2001 – 2002)
Congressional Aide (1995 – 2000)

Robert F. Kennedy High School, High School Teacher
Vance worked at Mithril Capital Management in San Francisco.  Mithril Capital was founded and funded by Peter Thiel, a major donor to Vance’s Senate campaign.
Website: WebsiteWebsite
Social media:Facebook
Twitter
Instagram
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram
On The Issues: AbortionTim Ryan voted to codify Roe v. Wade and has been an outspoken advocate for abortion rights in federal and local government. He votes against anti-choice bills in the House and opposes any restrictions to reproductive healthcare. A conservative outsider, JD Vance is an anti-choice candidate with no room for exceptions even in the case of rape or incest. Vance has stated he believes pregnancy in the case of rape or incest is an “inconvenience” and not a reason for abortion. He roots his beliefs on abortion in his idea of traditional families which involves  a married man and woman with children. Vance wants to use his time in office to make America more “pro-family”.
On The Issues: Economy and JobsTim Ryan, as a US Senator, plans on passing the PRO Act, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, expanding access to high-quality and affordable child care, and protecting the promise of a dignified retirement. He has opposed legislation from both parties that could be harmful to Ohio, such as NAFTA. Vance plans to help America’s economy by returning value to working class jobs and fighting the corporate elite. He believes in reinstating Trump’s trade policies and raising tariffs on trade with other countries. Vance argues companies that are “anti-American” should pay higher taxes for funding protests related to the Black Lives Matter movement.
On The Issues: Voting Rights and Fair ElectionsTim Ryan is a cosponsor and advocate for legislation that attempts to reverse the Citizen United decision, he wants clear disclosure of campaign spending, donations and an end to corporate influence in elections. During his time in the House, Ryan has voted for the restoration of the Voting Rights Act and worked to end partisan gerrymandering that disenfranchises Ohioans. JD Vance believes in strict voter identification laws, a single election day, and wants Ohioans to have to argue why they need absentee ballots. Vance is also a believer in “Replacement Theory”, the idea Democrats are allowing more immigration and people of color to change the electorate.
On The Issues: PolicingTim Ryan supports calls for increased police accountability and alternatives to police for people experiencing mental health issues.JD Vance is opposed to police accountability laws.
On The Issues: GunsTim Ryan supports universal background checks, red flag laws and an assault weapons ban.JD Vance is opposed to universal background checks, red flag laws and an assault weapons ban.
On The Issues: HealthcareTim Ryan supports the Affordable Care Act and expanding Medicare and Medicaid eligibility to more Ohioans.JD Vance supports the overturning of the Affordable Care Act, and does not support expanding Medicare and Medicaid eligibility.
On The Issues: ClimateTim Ryan, who helped pass President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, supports investing in clean energy and placing limits on carbon emissions. JD Vance has spoken out against President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and its clean energy incentives, including funding that would go towards growing Ohio’s electric vehicle industry.

Written by 2022 Election Hub · Categorized: 2022 Election Hub · Tagged: 2022 election hub, senate, U.S. Senate, US Senate

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