Nick Tuell · July 22, 2022

POLL: Tim Ryan’s lead grows to +5%

As part of Innovation Ohio’s role in supporting Ohio’s progressive infrastructure, we occasionally commission research to equip us and our partners with an understanding of the mood of the electorate and of policy solutions that will best improve the lives of working families. Research is vital to our organization’s ability to connect the dots between activism, advocacy, and policy making.

Today, we are sharing the results of a new poll of just over 2,000 Ohio registered voters, conducted online from July 5 – July 10 on the GrowProgress platform, on the state of the race for US Senate. In it, we find that Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Vance by 5 points, 46%-41%. Conducted over a month after our last poll and after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling to overturn Roe vs Wade, the poll shows Republican voters remain reluctant to throw their support behind extremist J.D. Vance. Vance’s support among Republicans sits at 81%, while Ryan secures 90% of Democrats. 

The share of voters who are undecided fell from 15% to 13% this month, driven primarily by movement among Republicans, 9% of whom remain undecided, compared to 14% last month. Republican support for Ryan increased from 7% to 10% during the same period.

Ryan’s advantage also increased from last month among key groups. Ryan leads by 23 points with women (54%-31%), up from 19 points last month (50%-31%) and among voters under the age of 30 by 18 points (48%-30%), up from 12 points (44%-32%) last month.

The poll also shows Ryan holding substantial leads among black voters, and those with a college degree. Vance, meanwhile, maintains an edge among white voters, those ages 55 and up and non-college voters. 

Full Results:

Other polling results: April 25 – April 29 and May 30 – June 3. 

“While Congressman Ryan consolidates support with key demographics, MAGA Republican JD Vance is losing ground and in the hole,” said Innovation Ohio President Desiree Tims. “Not only is Vance failing to gain any ground among Ohio voters over the last three months, his campaign is asking out-of-state donors to bail out his campaign debt. That’s not how you win in Ohio.”