· September 6, 2018

New Poll Shows Tied Gubernatorial Race, Close Races Up and Down the Ballot

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 6, 2018

Columbus, OH — Today, Innovation Ohio released a new poll showing a tied race between Mike DeWine and Richard Cordray, as well as close races up and down the ballot. The poll, conducted by Change Research, is the first from Innovation Ohio’s new Polling Collaborative.

“We’re excited to announce our Polling Collaborative, which will further Innovation Ohio’s mission of providing quality, research-based products about policy and politics in Ohio,” said Innovation Ohio President Janetta King. “This new project will supply quantitative data to inform voters, policymakers, and the media, adding value to the conversations around important issues being debated in our state. We will also use our expertise to analyze and respond to polling released publicly from other sources over the coming months.”

>>View polling memo and crosstabs.

Change Research conducted an online poll of 822 likely voters in Ohio from August 31 to September 4. Responses were solicited from verified registered Ohio voters reached online. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is 3% (although they believe that margin of error is overemphasized and can be misleading in polling analysis). Change Research was recently the only pollster to correctly predict the results in Florida’s Democratic gubernatorial primary

In head-to-head matchups, the poll found the following:

• In the Governor’s race, Democrat Rich Cordray is tied with Republican Mike DeWine, 43% – 43%. When all four candidates are included, DeWine leads by a narrow 45% – 43%.

• In the Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jim Renacci 46% – 42%.

• In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Dave Yost leads Democrat Steve Dettelbach, 41% – 37%.

• In the Auditor’s race, Republican Keith Faber leads Democrat Zack Space, 40% – 36%.

• In the Secretary of State’s race, Republican Frank LaRose leads Democrat Kathleen Clyde, 42% – 40%.

• In the Treasurer’s race, Republican Robert Sprague leads Democrat Rob Richardson, 41% – 38%.

The poll also tested issues recently in the news surrounding the gubernatorial race:

• On the ECOT issue, the poll found that 75% of voters were less likely to support a candidate who received significant campaign contributions from ECOT’s founder while the school defrauded the state.

• 74% of voters would be less likely to support a candidate who protected his friends and allies by interfering with sexual harassment investigations in his office.

• Nearly three quarters of voters would be less likely to support a candidate who ignored complaints of police officers in his office and forced them to wear expired bulletproof vests.

>>View polling memo and crosstabs.

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Innovation Ohio is a 501(c)4 nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank and advocacy organization located in Columbus. Our mission is to provide high-quality research and to construct winning narratives on the issues and fights important to Ohio.